Sketchplanations

Explaining one thing a week in a sketch

Sampling bias: a presenter proudly shows the conclusion of a bar chart of responses from people who were asked if they love responding to surveys. A resounding 'yes'.

Sampling bias

If you wanted to know who would win an election, then the only reliable (most of the time) way to do that is to ask everyone to vote for real and count them all. Short of doing that, if you want to get an idea who would win you can pick a group that you hope is representative of the whole of the voting population, ask them what they plan to vote instead, and then multiply up to the full group. But it turns out, whenever you ask people things, it's jolly hard to really have confidence in what you're extrapolating up to as all sorts of bias can creep into your sample.

If you ask people what they plan to vote they may lie, they may tell you what they plan to do then change their mind, they may tell you what they think you want to hear depending on who's asking, they may say the first option because it's easiest, and you may ask in the places where it's easy or cheap to do so, or hear from only the people who are happy and not too busy to talk with you.

In the example in the sketch, if you hope to receive responses to your questions by surveys then you get responses from people who happen to not mind doing surveys — from anyone who throws them in the bin you won't receive a single data point.

All of these, and others, can lead to a bias in your sample and, at times, to drawing wholly inaccurate conclusions.

Extreme example from How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff.

Keep exploring

Survivorship Bias illustration: two analysts observe bullet damage, depicted by red dots, on a fighter plane returning from battle. They propose that heavier armour is added to all aircraft in the most hit areas of the plane. A third onlooker wonders whether this surviving plane tells a different story in that it returned because the most vulnerable areas weren't hit. Maybe heavier armour should be added to those areas?
Point Nemo - the furthest point from land shown on the earth with the nearest three landmasses, Ducie Island, Moto Nui and Maher Island. This would be a long swim.
Sonar or echolocation explained
Correlation is not causation illustration: A chart of the correlation between storks nesting on roofs and children in a household is shown above a street of progressively larger family houses with more and more storks and someone wondering if the storks are bringing the babies
The decoy price - Sketchplanations
Buy Me A Coffee